Interesting information on private property prices

Today's Business Times has an article on OCR and CCR private residential properties' largest gains and largest losses, you can see at this URL:


I find the information very interesting, and I just summarize below:
(1) For CCR biggest absolute quantum gain, the % gain are: 35, 23, 15, 22, 9. (Average = +20.8%).

(2) For CCR biggest absolute quantum loss, the % loss are: -21, -7, -13, -23, -23. (Average = -17.4%).

(3) For OCR biggest absolute quantum gain, the % gain are: 54, 46, 41, 47, 40 (Average = +45.6%).

(4) For OCR biggest absolute quantum loss, the % loss are: -11, -4, -1, -0.3 (Average = -4.075%).

So, the above correlates with what I observed and mentioned previously that CCR private properties have risen the least and dropped the most, while OCR private properties have risen the most and dropped the least as of now!

1 CCR properties I eyeing, price down almost 25% already !!!

In an earlier post on property prices, I mentioned that:

"Similar transacted price trends can be seen for most other properties in the OCR and CCR neighbourhood whereby there is very little price increase for CCR properties bought in 2009 and now, while there is a huge increase of almost 85% or more for OCR properties.
You will be even more confused if you know that during the 2007 property price peak, similar OCR property was only transacted at about $700 psf while similar CCR property was transacted at >$2500 psf! "

I would like to elaborate further, again poking hole at the Channel News Asia's news article that says:
"Property prices have risen 60 per cent over the last four years but have declined by just 3.3 per cent over the last three quarters, MAS says."

Actually, when I look at 1 of the CCR properties I am eyeing, the unit had transacted at about $1500 psf in 2009, went up to about $2800 in 2011, and it was NOW down to about $2100 or a drop of about 25% !!!

In Singapore, generally we regarded a property price drop of >20% as having considered that property price has crashed, and that is it - CCR property prices have already crashed!

However, when I look at OCR properties in general, they don't seem to have gone down at all!  In fact, the unit had transacted at about $450 psf in 2009, went up to about $900+ in 2011, and went up further to >$1000 NOW !!!

These general trends are true for other properties in CCR and OCR neighbourhood, so much so for "have declined by just 3.3% over last 3 quarters" according to the news article!

Does the above give you the impression that such lobe-sided effects could be because the implemented property cooling measures are pretty lobe-sided as well?

So, if you are truly rich and can hold for long-term, time to cherry pick CCR properties!

Read NEWS with eyes wide open and brain functioning!

On 24 July 2014, we saw NEWS on Channel News Asia with headline news like this:
"‘Too early’ to ease property cooling measures: MAS"

The news article then continues to say:
"Property prices have risen 60 per cent over the last four years but have declined by just 3.3 per cent over the last three quarters, MAS says."

You can read the full details at this URL.

There is no doubt that the above is true in the overall sense, but only on face value.
If you delve deeper into the overall conclusion, you will find that the conclusion is NOT true of Singapore properties in certain specific localities, mainly the Core Central Region or CCR (i.e. the urban city area).

Since they said "Property prices risen 60% over last 4 years", I will look at the property prices from 2009 - 2014 now specifically in different locations, E.g.:

1) In 2009, a 1367 sqft 99-years leasehold property in Outside Core Region (OCR) or suburb, Sengkang, was transacted at about $500 psf.
In 2014 Jun, the property was transacted at $929 psf.  This is a gain of 85.8%.

2) In 2009, a 2293 freehold sqft property in Core Central Region or urban city in Orchard, was transacted at $1153 psf.
In 2014 July, the property was transacted at $1168 psf.  This is a gain of only 1.3% (after about 5 years!).

Similar transacted price trends can be seen for most other properties in the OCR and CCR neighbourhood whereby there is very little price increase for CCR properties bought in 2009 and now, while there is a huge increase of almost 85% or more for OCR properties.

You will be even more confused if you know that during the 2007 property price peak, similar OCR property was only transacted at about $700 psf while similar CCR property was transacted at >$2500 psf!

Thus, we can see that statement that the private property prices have risen 60% over last 4 years is a serious under-statement for OCR property prices AND yet a serious over-statement for CCR property prices.  This is despite of the so many cooling measures and the most recent most damning ABSD and TDSR.

On the other hand, we can see that the biggest bargain to be had right now is the CCR private residential properties (vs historical prices)!
However, I also note that despite of this fact, most ordinary Singaporeans can't afford such CCR properties, rendering them no choice but to buy "expensive" OCR properties that are "more affordable" to them.  The truly rich are having their big cherry to picks (other than having to pay ABSD)! These CCR properties are mostly fire-sale by those owners who are not rich and are now in need of money, partially also squeezed by TDSR and inability to re-finance at a better terms and rate etc.