Saturday, September 24, 2016

CPF Life Payout-Return Calculator Online

I have made available here a “CPF Life Payout-Return Online Calculator“ where you can calculate the payout you are supposed to receive based on the expected annuity return you desire (which should be 4% according to CPF) if you can live to certain age!

You can access the calculator online at this URL:
    http://make-money-secrets.blogspot.sg/p/cpf-life-payreturn.html

(You can also access from the link here:
https://make-money-secrets.blogspot.sg/p/my-online-calculators.html )

Note that there are 2 ways to use this CPF Life payout-return online calculator:

(a) You can compare the CPF Life payout you ACTUALLY receive to the CPF Life payout at desired return (calculated using this online calculator) to see whether you are being over-paid or under-paid for your participated annuity (based on the average life-span for men (80) and women (85)) if you key into "Age you expected to live until in (Years)" as 80 (for men) or 85 (for women).

(b) You can keep varying the input number of "CPF Life desired return you would like (%)" such that you get a % figure which gives a CPF Life payout (given by "CPF Life payout at desired return") which is same as the ACTUAL CPF Life payout amount. In this way, the % figure basically gives you the implied annuity return of your CPF Life (for a given "Age you expected to live until in (Years)", which we usually use 80 for men and 85 for women (this is the actual statistical life-span of Singapore's men and women).

This is for fun but the truth will shock you!

For example, if you have participate in the CPF Life Standard Plan’s Full Retirement Scheme (previous called the “Minimum Sum”) with an amount of $161,000 at 55 years old, then accordingly, you should get about $251,371 at 65 years old (after interest compounding).
Then from 65 years old,  CPF Life payout given by CPF which is about $1300 per month (for men), and if you project that you can only live till average age of 80 years old (80 for men (85 for women), because statistically only <=50% of Singaporean men can live pass 80 years old and similarly for women is 85 years old) and assuming bequest = $0 if you live till/pass average age (which is typical of such annuity programme), then the actual CPF Life annuity return you are getting is actually -0.88% (a NEGATIVE return)!

In other words, if a man wanted to get an annualized return of 4% from his CPF Life (with a capital of about $251,371 at 65 years old), he would need to live till 91 years old!  Think about it, how many Singaporean men out there can live till 91 years old?  I would postulate that chances are that only something like 1% of men would ever live pass 91 years old, while the statistics currently available, which you can read here:
    http://www.singstat.gov.sg/statistics/visualising-data/charts/life-expectancy-at-birth

It is clear that about 50% of men would die before they even hit 80 years old, and hence 50% of men would only have a CPF Life annuity return of -0.8%!

It would be interesting to know how many men actually could live pass 80 years old, 85 years old and 91 years old!

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