Thursday, November 13, 2014

Fed rate: Fed's long-run equilibrium rate is now 3.75%

It is interesting to read that 3.75% is now Fed's new norm or new long-term equilibrium rate as follow:

"The new Fed forecasts suggest that at the end of 2016 the U.S. economy will be at full employment, with inflation slightly below 2%. Despite that robust outlook, the Fed's projected median fed funds rate for the end of 2016 is just 2.85%, nearly 1% below its stated long-run equilibrium rate of 3.75%. Fed Chair Janet Yellen attributed this to the "lingering effects" of the global financial crisis."

My understanding is that Fed's long-run equilibrium rate used to be about 5.5%...............

If Singapore's SIBOR rate follows the same trend as Fed rate, and Singapore's SIBOR rate previously was about 2.5% average over long-term, then Singapore's new norm or new long-term equilibrium SIBOR rate should be about 3.75/5.5 * 2.5 =   1.70% !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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