Below is the news I recently read recently:
"Hedge fund titan Dan Loeb's Third Point LLC picked up 7.2 million shares of Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba BABA in the third quarter, a stake worth $639.7 million as of Sept. 30, according to a regulatory filing on Friday. Funds are required to disclose long positions in 13F filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission 45 days after the end of each quarter. Alibaba marked Loeb's largest new stake, equal to 7.3% of his portfolio, according to Whalewisdom.com. Dow Chemical DOW remained Loeb's largest position at 22 milion shares, with a Sept. 30 market value of $1.154 billion. Loeb also acquired 4.5 million shares of Ebay EBAY worth $254.8 million, while unloading his entire 6 million share stake in American International Group AIG as well as entire stakes in Hertz HTZ and T-mobile."
So, question: Should you follow famed investors to buy and sell stocks?
Sunday, November 16, 2014
Saturday, November 15, 2014
Transparency needed for CPF Life - What is the actual payout and how is it computed?
After playing with the CPF LIFE Payout Estimator at this URL for a while, I am still none the wiser as to what is the actual CPF Life payout for each individual and how that payout figure is calculated.
I was told that the actual CPF Life payout amount is at the low end of the range given by the CPF Life Payout Estimator Calculator. If so, could we also assume that the bequest amount is likely to be at the low end of the range as well?
Until CPF Board becomes transparent with the actual CPF Life payout and how the payout figure is calculated, we can only rely on the figure told to us by our friends and relatives, which leads us to the conclusion that CPF Life payout sucks!
I was told that the actual CPF Life payout amount is at the low end of the range given by the CPF Life Payout Estimator Calculator. If so, could we also assume that the bequest amount is likely to be at the low end of the range as well?
Until CPF Board becomes transparent with the actual CPF Life payout and how the payout figure is calculated, we can only rely on the figure told to us by our friends and relatives, which leads us to the conclusion that CPF Life payout sucks!
Moderation and thrift count in retirement
Another interesting article on typical Singapore's retirees expenditures can be read at this URL...
To summarize, some interesting facts are:
* Retirees spend a few thousand dollars at the most each month; more typically, the amount is a moderate $1,000. Perhaps, needs are simpler when one is older. The statistics debunk a fashionable assertion that "even $1 million is not enough to retire on" or that you must target to have retirement income which is 70 per cent of your last drawn income.
* Even for the wealthiest who spend $2,000 a month, they do not need millions in the money pot - just a $600,000 blue-chip and bond portfolio giving a 4 per cent yield, for example.
* Whether future retirees can spend as little as the current batch is a question mark.
* In absolute terms, the typical retired person spends little, but is buffeted by considerable inflation.
* According to the report, individuals in typical retiree households spending $720 a month experienced a 5.3 per cent inflation rate in the last 10 years.
* CPF Life, assuming a full 2015 Minimum Sum of $161,000, provides a monthly income of about $1,300 a month for life from age 65. But at a 5.3 per cent inflation rate, a typical retiree's spending will balloon beyond $1,300 a month after just 12 years.
* The inflation rate of 5.3 per cent is also more than what most conventional insurance instruments can match, or even what the CPF itself provides.
* On average, retiree households in four-room flats spend $1,500 a month, but get $1,230. Those in five-room flats spend $2,000 a month, but get $1,800. Those in three-room flats, condominiums and landed properties spend less than what they get.
* Another interesting tidbit is that retirees living in three-, four- and five-room flats are earning about $200-300 a month in investment income.
* Thus, for the current batch of Singaporean retirees, the picture does not look grim by any means. They are likely to have some resources, in the form of their flat or investments. They are thrifty and do not spend much.
* Still, a large proportion of retiree households' support comes from relatives and friends not living with them, presumably their children; the social fabric is still strong. Contributions from relatives and friends not living in the same household amount to $300-700 a month for most retiree households.
To summarize, some interesting facts are:
* Retirees spend a few thousand dollars at the most each month; more typically, the amount is a moderate $1,000. Perhaps, needs are simpler when one is older. The statistics debunk a fashionable assertion that "even $1 million is not enough to retire on" or that you must target to have retirement income which is 70 per cent of your last drawn income.
* Even for the wealthiest who spend $2,000 a month, they do not need millions in the money pot - just a $600,000 blue-chip and bond portfolio giving a 4 per cent yield, for example.
* Whether future retirees can spend as little as the current batch is a question mark.
* In absolute terms, the typical retired person spends little, but is buffeted by considerable inflation.
* According to the report, individuals in typical retiree households spending $720 a month experienced a 5.3 per cent inflation rate in the last 10 years.
* CPF Life, assuming a full 2015 Minimum Sum of $161,000, provides a monthly income of about $1,300 a month for life from age 65. But at a 5.3 per cent inflation rate, a typical retiree's spending will balloon beyond $1,300 a month after just 12 years.
* The inflation rate of 5.3 per cent is also more than what most conventional insurance instruments can match, or even what the CPF itself provides.
* On average, retiree households in four-room flats spend $1,500 a month, but get $1,230. Those in five-room flats spend $2,000 a month, but get $1,800. Those in three-room flats, condominiums and landed properties spend less than what they get.
* Another interesting tidbit is that retirees living in three-, four- and five-room flats are earning about $200-300 a month in investment income.
* Thus, for the current batch of Singaporean retirees, the picture does not look grim by any means. They are likely to have some resources, in the form of their flat or investments. They are thrifty and do not spend much.
* Still, a large proportion of retiree households' support comes from relatives and friends not living with them, presumably their children; the social fabric is still strong. Contributions from relatives and friends not living in the same household amount to $300-700 a month for most retiree households.
Friday, November 14, 2014
S&P500 index and US$ climbing up...
As mentioned some time ago, I am quite bullish on S&P500 index and US$ (vs S$). I am glad to be proven right with the S&P500 index now 2039 and US$:S$ = 1.2991. This is very important because I am putting my money where my mouth is.......
Thursday, November 13, 2014
Fed rate: Fed's long-run equilibrium rate is now 3.75%
It is interesting to read that 3.75% is now Fed's new norm or new long-term equilibrium rate as follow:
"The new Fed forecasts suggest that at the end of 2016 the U.S. economy will be at full employment, with inflation slightly below 2%. Despite that robust outlook, the Fed's projected median fed funds rate for the end of 2016 is just 2.85%, nearly 1% below its stated long-run equilibrium rate of 3.75%. Fed Chair Janet Yellen attributed this to the "lingering effects" of the global financial crisis."
My understanding is that Fed's long-run equilibrium rate used to be about 5.5%...............
If Singapore's SIBOR rate follows the same trend as Fed rate, and Singapore's SIBOR rate previously was about 2.5% average over long-term, then Singapore's new norm or new long-term equilibrium SIBOR rate should be about 3.75/5.5 * 2.5 = 1.70% !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
"The new Fed forecasts suggest that at the end of 2016 the U.S. economy will be at full employment, with inflation slightly below 2%. Despite that robust outlook, the Fed's projected median fed funds rate for the end of 2016 is just 2.85%, nearly 1% below its stated long-run equilibrium rate of 3.75%. Fed Chair Janet Yellen attributed this to the "lingering effects" of the global financial crisis."
My understanding is that Fed's long-run equilibrium rate used to be about 5.5%...............
If Singapore's SIBOR rate follows the same trend as Fed rate, and Singapore's SIBOR rate previously was about 2.5% average over long-term, then Singapore's new norm or new long-term equilibrium SIBOR rate should be about 3.75/5.5 * 2.5 = 1.70% !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Tuesday, November 4, 2014
US$ shows convincing sign of uptrend vs S$
The last time I mentioned that US$ is likely to rally against S$, the exchange of US$ to S$ is about 1.26. Now, the exchange is 1.291, or an increase of about 2.46%.
This trend is expect to continue................................
This trend is expect to continue................................
Sunday, November 2, 2014
Corning (NYSE:GLW) Q3 sales and earnings beat estimates
In October 2014, Corning (NYSE stock symbol: GLW) announced its results for the third quarter of 2014. It reported third-quarter revenue of $2.54 billion, an increase of 22.9 percent from the year-ago quarter. Also, core EPS grows 21%; and sales and earnings exceed expectations.
Third-Quarter Highlights
GLW earnings announcement for shareholders contain the following statements:
1) "We continue to work on a major initiative for our Life Sciences business, which we believe could become a large opportunity for us.".
2) "Gorilla Glass is receiving interest from the automotive industry for solutions that may reduce overall vehicle weight, improve gas mileage, and provide additional safety benefits. These new technologies may serve as the foundation for Corning's next growth surge".
3) "And with the anticipated conclusion of the current repurchase program this quarter, the board of directors has agreed to accelerate its evaluation of future share repurchases and dividend increases."
It had also recently been announced that Apple did not use Sapphire glass (from GTAT) for Apple iPhone 6. GTAT's Sapphire glass is a direct competitor for Corning's flagship product, Gorilla Glass.
Traditionally, iPhones have shipped with Corning’s Gorilla Glass as its protective cover glass. However, because of Apple‘s deal with GT Advanced Technologies, a manufacturer of sapphire crystal products and manufacturing equipment, there were rumors that the iPhone 6 would have a sapphire cover instead of Gorilla Glass.
While Apple has not explicitly mentioned the use of Corning’s Gorilla Glass on iPhone 6 or the iPhone 6 Plus, there have been indications that the iPhone 6 might have Gorilla Glass protecting its display.
The Likelihood Of Gorilla Glass On iPhone 6 Bodes Well For Corning. The fact that Saphhire glass is unable to replace Gorilla Glass is great news for Corning and their shareholders.
Third-Quarter Highlights
- Core sales were $2.6 billion, a 26% increase on a year-over-year basis. Net sales (GAAP) were $2.5 billion, a 23% increase on a year-over-year basis.
- Core earnings per share were $0.40*, a 21% improvement over a year ago. This marked the eighth consecutive quarter of year-over-year core EPS growth. GAAP earnings per share were $0.72.
- Corning’s LCD glass volume was up by high single digits sequentially, driven by retail sales of TVs and supply chain preparations for the upcoming holiday season.
- Year-over-year core sales in Corning Environmental Technologies grew significantly at 25%, and core sales in the Optical Communications segment remained robust, growing 7%.
GLW earnings announcement for shareholders contain the following statements:
1) "We continue to work on a major initiative for our Life Sciences business, which we believe could become a large opportunity for us.".
2) "Gorilla Glass is receiving interest from the automotive industry for solutions that may reduce overall vehicle weight, improve gas mileage, and provide additional safety benefits. These new technologies may serve as the foundation for Corning's next growth surge".
3) "And with the anticipated conclusion of the current repurchase program this quarter, the board of directors has agreed to accelerate its evaluation of future share repurchases and dividend increases."
It had also recently been announced that Apple did not use Sapphire glass (from GTAT) for Apple iPhone 6. GTAT's Sapphire glass is a direct competitor for Corning's flagship product, Gorilla Glass.
Traditionally, iPhones have shipped with Corning’s Gorilla Glass as its protective cover glass. However, because of Apple‘s deal with GT Advanced Technologies, a manufacturer of sapphire crystal products and manufacturing equipment, there were rumors that the iPhone 6 would have a sapphire cover instead of Gorilla Glass.
While Apple has not explicitly mentioned the use of Corning’s Gorilla Glass on iPhone 6 or the iPhone 6 Plus, there have been indications that the iPhone 6 might have Gorilla Glass protecting its display.
The Likelihood Of Gorilla Glass On iPhone 6 Bodes Well For Corning. The fact that Saphhire glass is unable to replace Gorilla Glass is great news for Corning and their shareholders.