Friday, September 19, 2014

Is Neptune Orient Lines (NOL) a buy now?

I have started to have very strong interest in Neptune Orient Lines (Singapore stock quote N03.SI (on Yahoo Finance)), currently at S$0.960.  
There may be changes/updates following some reports on review of their logistic business - either to sell or to list it as a separate entity. 

NOL in early August 2014 reported yet another quarter of red ink, as expected, a core net loss of US$55m in 2Q14, inline with analysts' forecast. 

Losses have been lowered both on a y-o-y and q-o-q basis, largely owing to the deployment of a newer more efficient fully owned fleet replacing expensive charters. Liner revenue was down 2% y-o-y though on the back of a 6% decline in volumes, as NOL strove to lower its exposure to loss making backhaul routes. As a result of this change in volume mix, average freight rates trended upwards by 7% q-o-q to US$2,321 per FEU. Results would have been better if not for one off costs incurred during the period, including some restructuring charges, port congestion effects in South California, G6 alliance related startup costs among others, which resulted in opex per FEU for the liner business climbing 3% y-o-y and 4% q-o-q to US$2,595 per FEU.

NOL has lost money for 2 out of the last 3 years, and NOL's improving operational efficiency has been derailed by one-off cost. However, NOL has recorded some success in passing through peak season hikes in early August on Transpacific routes, of about US$400/ FEU on the Transpacific
route from 1st August – lower than the proposed US$600/FEU – but still a reasonable success. US East Coast rates have actually jumped to their highest in a while, propped by diversion of cargo from the US West Coast ports, which are grappling with port worker pay related problems, with threat of strikes looming. Asia-US trade is up about 4.5% YTD in 2014, according to management, and if some of the rate hikes can hold up through the ongoing peak season, that could bring some near term cheer to the liners. However, longer term, the oversupply situation is still a distance from being resolved and losses for the industry could drag well into FY15.
The outlook looks bleak at the moment, but there is positive undercurrent coming its way considering the economic recovery of US. 

Company Profile:
Neptune Orient Lines Limited (Singapore stock quote N03.SI (on Yahoo Finance)), an investment holding company, owns and charters vessels and other related assets worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Liner and Logistics. It offers ocean shipping and container transportation services through intermodal operations. The company provides container shipping services in trade lanes comprising the Trans-Pacific, Trans-Atlantic, Latin America, Asia-Europe, and Intra-Asia trades. It operates a fleet of approximately 45 owned ships and 76 chartered vessels totaling 640,000 twenty foot equivalent units. The company also offers logistics services, including end-to-end services, such as supply chain design and engineering, shipment consolidation and deconsolidation, freight forwarding and customs management, and warehousing and distribution networks management services, as well as information technology solutions. In addition, it provides international, land transportation, contract logistics, and automotive logistics services, as well as ocean, air, truck, and rail freight management services. In addition, it provides other related and complementary services, including ship management; and incidental activities comprising the disposal of vessels, containers, and related assets. The company operates a network of approximately 190 facilities with 26 million square feet of warehouse space. It serves customers in various industries, including automotive/industrial, retail, consumer goods, electronics and technology, and other industries. The company was founded in 1968 and is based in Singapore. Neptune Orient Lines Limited is a subsidiary of Temasek Holdings (Private) Limited, which in turn is owned by the Singapore Government.

Financials & Outlook:
Last traded = $0.960
Market Capital = $2.48B
Current P/E = -
P/S = 0.28
Dividend Yield = 0

Debt/Equity    = 2.3
P/B    = 1.0
ROE    = -
Profit Margin = -
The technicals show strong support at about $0.96. 

I rate it a buy at current price. 

People will be very scared with NOL because of its multiple years' losses, but they will have to understand why.
For me, I believe NOL is going to turn the corner.  For such company whose business is very cyclical, catching them at rock bottom stock price will pay off very handsomely, and I believe this is probably about the time to get back this stock..................

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